Hybrids, Electrics, Diesels: Which Technology Will Win?
A huge amount of money is riding on which technology will power the car of the future. While the internal combustion engine, at least in its present form, is certainly on the way out, a range of technologies is vying to become the power source of choice for the next generation of automobiles. Electric plug-ins, hybrids, diesels, and even hydrogen all have promise, but all also have potentially large downfalls.
Diesel fuel seems to be making something of a come back in recent years. Diesel is more efficient than gas and new technology makes it much easier on the environment. Diesels hold 2.6% of the market share currently, and are expected to grow to 8.0%, according to auto analysists J.D. Powers and Associates. German carmakers in particular are pushing diesel as a green alternative.
Hybrids, which have gotten all the press lately, currently hold about the same market share as diesel fuel and are expected to grow to 8.7% by 2015. Hybrid technology is maturing and new generations of hybrids could get over 100 miles per gallon.
Plug-in electric cars are the latest rage, especially as embodied in Tesla’s Roadster and Chevrolet’s soon-to-be unveiled Volt. While electrics can potentially get great gas mileage, they are not expected to gain significant market share in the near term. One obstacle is that because the vehicles are plugged in to charge, the nation’s electricity grid has to be updated to accomodate this new demand.
Despite the promise of these green technologies, analysts expect the gasoline engine to remain dominant over the next decade. Fuel is still relatively cheap, the infrastructure already exists to support gas vehicles, and the alternatives are still too costly.